Why is it that we still have high unemployment (around 8%) and, at the same time have more than 3 million jobs available? I've talked about this problem in previous blogs.The acquisition of skills is the most important factor. Its not, as some "experts" say, that manufacturing jobs have declined over the past 30 to 40 years (Manufacturing jobs are down 40% from the peak in 1978 and are back to roughly where they were during World War II.)
But this does not mean that manufacturing is in decline. Manufacturing jobs are down because productivity has improved so much. We still produce as much or more than in the past, but with far fewer employees. We are still the number one manufacturing economy in the world and manufacturing shipments have about doubled in the past two and a half decades. By itself, manufacturing would be the ninth largest economy in the world. And, it could grow much more in the years ahead if some of those 3 million jobs could be filled.
Why aren't they being filled? The new and available high paying manufacturing jobs require serious skills and technical know-how, that many of the younger generation do not have, even if they possess a college education. The skills required for these new manufacturing jobs are sometimes called STEM skills -- knowledge of science, technology, engineering and math. Many in the younger generation will acquire these skills because that is where the money is. However, it will take time. But once skilled labor is back in the U.S., manufacturing will see massive gains over the next couple of decades.
The younger generation are going back to school in droves and piling up a lot of debt in the process. But if they are thinking that just having a degree is going to get them a job, they are wrong. They need skills that may not even require college. We need to encourage and direct our youth toward acquiring STEM skills.
GO FORTH and DO GOOD!
Turning North
Available now on Amazon -- click on image
Monday, November 26, 2012
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Sandy's Lesson
In the wake of the storm "Sandy," troubles are mounting. The devastation of flooded homes, fallen trees, even death are the horrible results of a disaster that comes with a violent storm. And in the following days, even greater troubles seem to arise. Shortages of gasoline, food, and potable water reach out and touch hundreds of thousands more. Then, the inconvenience of getting back to work with power outages, flooded subways and cold weather touch millions more in New Jersey and the New York City metro area.
It's in times like these where we reach out. Prayer is a powerful way to help. For many of us who are able, making a monetary gift is also a way to help. I know of one agency, Presbyterian Mission Agency that has created a separate account for Disaster Relief--2012 Superstorm (Sandy). The link is http://www.presbyterianmission.org/ministries/pda/.
It's in times like these where we reach out. Prayer is a powerful way to help. For many of us who are able, making a monetary gift is also a way to help. I know of one agency, Presbyterian Mission Agency that has created a separate account for Disaster Relief--2012 Superstorm (Sandy). The link is http://www.presbyterianmission.org/ministries/pda/.
Even as we remember Sandy's victims and reach out to help, we must also remember our own blessings and the hope comes from the lessons of history. Disasters are not new. We learn. We will be better prepared for the next disaster and we'll learn from that. Just think of what would have happened if we had not learned to warn and evacuate people. The death toll would have been greater. And there are many other examples of lessons learned.
But, perhaps the greatest lesson is what we realize about our own, personal state of affairs. And that is that we're doing pretty good. The great Athenian philosopher, Socrates was to have said, "If all misfortunes were laid in one common heap whence everyone must take an equal portion, most people would be contented to take their own and depart." And for those wishing to find a scriptural passage, I recommend Romans 8: 28. We know that God works all things for good.
Keep Calm and Carry On
Thursday, October 4, 2012
A Committee that Works
Following a long career in corporate America, I gained a healthy dislike for committees. In the first place, They are usually huge time wasters. This applies to all meetings, not just duly appointed committees. Second, often committees are simply a way to spread risk or colloquially, to "cover your ass." This is not necessarily a bad thing, but it takes away from accountability and that often, leads to greater risk.
I can just imagine a committee in a bank that deals with lending standards for mortgages in the years leading up to the 2008 sub-prime debacle, setting standards so low that anyone could borrow and with no collateral. Meetings and committees are often necessary evils to the conduct of business, but individual accountability is still needed.
In my life, I have learned however, of one committee that does work. This is the committee of axons and dendrites that work to process information in the brain. In terms of problem solving, which is what committees deal with, including the mortgage lending case above, where the committee is dealing with the problem of what appropriate standards to set, the committee seems to work best when resting or even sleeping. John Steinbeck, one of my favorite authors say this: "It is a common experience that a problem difficult at night is resolved in the morning after the committee of sleep has worked on it."
It is a paradox of sorts that sleeping a lot or taking a nap can make you a more productive person. There are some people who have to be busy all the time and many of them are very effective. But, it is also true that many people rely on the appearance of "busy-ness" to show how effective they are. They equate busy hard work with effectiveness. However, hard work and being busy are not the same thing. If you are trying to solve a particularly hard problem, it is often the "Committee of Sleep" that does the hard work. And one more benefit of the "Committee of Sleep", there still is one person who remains accountable.
GO FORTH and DO GOOD
I can just imagine a committee in a bank that deals with lending standards for mortgages in the years leading up to the 2008 sub-prime debacle, setting standards so low that anyone could borrow and with no collateral. Meetings and committees are often necessary evils to the conduct of business, but individual accountability is still needed.
In my life, I have learned however, of one committee that does work. This is the committee of axons and dendrites that work to process information in the brain. In terms of problem solving, which is what committees deal with, including the mortgage lending case above, where the committee is dealing with the problem of what appropriate standards to set, the committee seems to work best when resting or even sleeping. John Steinbeck, one of my favorite authors say this: "It is a common experience that a problem difficult at night is resolved in the morning after the committee of sleep has worked on it."
It is a paradox of sorts that sleeping a lot or taking a nap can make you a more productive person. There are some people who have to be busy all the time and many of them are very effective. But, it is also true that many people rely on the appearance of "busy-ness" to show how effective they are. They equate busy hard work with effectiveness. However, hard work and being busy are not the same thing. If you are trying to solve a particularly hard problem, it is often the "Committee of Sleep" that does the hard work. And one more benefit of the "Committee of Sleep", there still is one person who remains accountable.
GO FORTH and DO GOOD
Thursday, August 30, 2012
More Skills Needed
According to Vice President Joe Biden, this coming election boils down to that three letter word; JOBS! As funny as the Vice President has been, I think almost everyone would agree that the VP is correct except for his ability to count.
As I've blogged before, the answer to solving the JOBS problem lies in creating a faster growth in the economy. Barring that, the existential solution for those seeking a job is to acquire a greater skill set. The data clearly shows that the more education one has, the greater the opportunity for employment. According to the EPI analysis of the monthly Current Population Survey, the unemployment rate for those without a high school diploma is 17.8%, those with some college, 8.6%, and those with a college degree, 5.2%. It's a sliding scale. Those having an advanced degree have an unemployment rate of 3.3%. The Atlantic is quoted as saying that "These days. it seems we're really in a grad school economy." A good part of this problem simply relates to the continued progress of technology which requires higher and more specialized skills.
However, there is another way for people to acquire skills and that is through experience. One might say, going back to school takes long enough, gaining experience requires, not only a job to begin with, but an even greater length of time. That's true, but the problem is that those "Boomers" who we have been waiting to retire are not doing so and they are the ones who have acquired the specialized skills. The data from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) indicates that since the end of the recession, the total number of civilian jobs have grown by less that 3 million, all of which have been gained by those in the 55 year and older category. The "Boomers" are not making room for the younger generation. The "Millennials," those who are now in the, say, 8 to 30 year old bracket is a larger cohort than the "Boomers."
What point am I trying to make? I've listened to almost every speech at the Republican Convention. Virtually all the speeches are directed toward the younger generation in some sense. Yes, most of these Millennials are still ineligible to vote due to their youth, but they are enough of a swing vote to tilt toward the Republicans who seem to be making a "realistic" case appealing to the pragmatic "Millennials" instead of an "idealistic" case which is so characteristic of "Boomers." Lets see who the Democrats talk to in the coming week. Four years ago, the youngsters mostly voted for the President. If the Republicans can reverse that vote, they could place Mr. Romney in the Presidency. And in this blogger's view that would be a very good thing.
Parents of the "Millennial" generation are noted for being obsessed with the welfare of their children. Enough said.
GO FORTH and DO GOOD
As I've blogged before, the answer to solving the JOBS problem lies in creating a faster growth in the economy. Barring that, the existential solution for those seeking a job is to acquire a greater skill set. The data clearly shows that the more education one has, the greater the opportunity for employment. According to the EPI analysis of the monthly Current Population Survey, the unemployment rate for those without a high school diploma is 17.8%, those with some college, 8.6%, and those with a college degree, 5.2%. It's a sliding scale. Those having an advanced degree have an unemployment rate of 3.3%. The Atlantic is quoted as saying that "These days. it seems we're really in a grad school economy." A good part of this problem simply relates to the continued progress of technology which requires higher and more specialized skills.
However, there is another way for people to acquire skills and that is through experience. One might say, going back to school takes long enough, gaining experience requires, not only a job to begin with, but an even greater length of time. That's true, but the problem is that those "Boomers" who we have been waiting to retire are not doing so and they are the ones who have acquired the specialized skills. The data from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) indicates that since the end of the recession, the total number of civilian jobs have grown by less that 3 million, all of which have been gained by those in the 55 year and older category. The "Boomers" are not making room for the younger generation. The "Millennials," those who are now in the, say, 8 to 30 year old bracket is a larger cohort than the "Boomers."
What point am I trying to make? I've listened to almost every speech at the Republican Convention. Virtually all the speeches are directed toward the younger generation in some sense. Yes, most of these Millennials are still ineligible to vote due to their youth, but they are enough of a swing vote to tilt toward the Republicans who seem to be making a "realistic" case appealing to the pragmatic "Millennials" instead of an "idealistic" case which is so characteristic of "Boomers." Lets see who the Democrats talk to in the coming week. Four years ago, the youngsters mostly voted for the President. If the Republicans can reverse that vote, they could place Mr. Romney in the Presidency. And in this blogger's view that would be a very good thing.
Parents of the "Millennial" generation are noted for being obsessed with the welfare of their children. Enough said.
GO FORTH and DO GOOD
Sunday, August 5, 2012
The Galciers are Disappearing!
On a personal note, Mary Ann and I have just returned from one of the most beautiful places on earth, Glacier National Park.The wildlife was quite abundant. We saw black bears, moose, deer, mountain goats, bald eagles, osprey and those cute little mountain squirrels. We also hiked to glacial lakes and waterfalls so numerous that most of them had no names. The rivers and creeks were clear and swift and the cool weather was a major respite for us Arizonans in August. Mainly, we witnessed the most beautiful vistas created by mother nature using a carving tool so vast that it literally escapes the ability of the mind to understand.
I'm speaking about glaciers. Our guides would say that the Park is mis-named and should be called Glaciated National Park, because the 22 or 23 glaciers that still exist are small and receding and are expected to be completely gone in about 20 years. Yes, that is potentially in our lifetime.
When you question the guides as I do; (i.e., as an annoying analyst) one tends to get a little different perspective. Here is what I found. The beautiful vistas of the Park were carved by massive glaciers, but not by any of the glaciers that currently still exist in the Park. The glaciers that made the Park what it is today existed 10,000 years ago during the last Ice Age and have long ago completely melted. Approximately 700 years ago there occurred a "mini ice age" that resulted in the glaciers in Glacier National Park that existed when the area was first seen by Americans and are now receding.
I am a believer in global warming. In fact, I believe Earth is continually in a state of warming or cooling and has been for hundreds of millions of years. I find those who attribute "climate change" to human activity arrogant and shallow. Human progress has been impressive and often has been damaging to the environment, but to raise human activity to a level high enough to compete with mother nature would be laughable if those that do so weren't so serious about it. My advice, go visit Glacier National Park.
Keep Calm and Carry On
I'm speaking about glaciers. Our guides would say that the Park is mis-named and should be called Glaciated National Park, because the 22 or 23 glaciers that still exist are small and receding and are expected to be completely gone in about 20 years. Yes, that is potentially in our lifetime.
When you question the guides as I do; (i.e., as an annoying analyst) one tends to get a little different perspective. Here is what I found. The beautiful vistas of the Park were carved by massive glaciers, but not by any of the glaciers that currently still exist in the Park. The glaciers that made the Park what it is today existed 10,000 years ago during the last Ice Age and have long ago completely melted. Approximately 700 years ago there occurred a "mini ice age" that resulted in the glaciers in Glacier National Park that existed when the area was first seen by Americans and are now receding.
I am a believer in global warming. In fact, I believe Earth is continually in a state of warming or cooling and has been for hundreds of millions of years. I find those who attribute "climate change" to human activity arrogant and shallow. Human progress has been impressive and often has been damaging to the environment, but to raise human activity to a level high enough to compete with mother nature would be laughable if those that do so weren't so serious about it. My advice, go visit Glacier National Park.
Keep Calm and Carry On
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Simplicity and Complexity
One of the famous things that American author, poet and philosopher, Henry David Thoreau said was, "Our life is frittered away by detail, simplify, simplify." I think most would agree that this is very good advice. But, we must be careful with simplicity. Sometimes we try to simplify when it really can't be done. Political candidates today try to make simple the impact of the ACA (Obamacare) when, in reality the subject is very complex.
Remember, when the word simple is used as an adjective, it means easy to understand, deal with or use. When used as a noun, i.e., you describe a person as a simple person, the word means ignorant, foolish or gullible. No one wants to be described as a simple person. And, maybe that is why we tend to complicate our lives.
The word complex is the opposite of simple when used as an adjective. It means composed of many interconnected parts. When used as a noun, however, it is not the opposite. A complex thing is a thing of many interconnected parts such as an apartment complex. A complex thing is not, thus, smart or wise.
Apparently quite a few Americans think Obamacare is wrong headed. They may be correct. It certainly is complex. But lets not judge it wrong because it is complex. And similarly we shouldn't try to simplify it and judge it because the Supreme Court justified the mandated part of it by saying it was a tax. Before Obamacare, our health care system was extremely difficult to understand.
The issue is very important because it has to do with our health. Let's make an attempt to understand some of the many other interconnected parts. And if we can't understand it, then maybe that is a good reason to oppose it. In my life as a portfolio manager, I valued this advice, "If you don't understand it, don't buy it."
GO FORTH AND DO GOOD
Remember, when the word simple is used as an adjective, it means easy to understand, deal with or use. When used as a noun, i.e., you describe a person as a simple person, the word means ignorant, foolish or gullible. No one wants to be described as a simple person. And, maybe that is why we tend to complicate our lives.
The word complex is the opposite of simple when used as an adjective. It means composed of many interconnected parts. When used as a noun, however, it is not the opposite. A complex thing is a thing of many interconnected parts such as an apartment complex. A complex thing is not, thus, smart or wise.
Apparently quite a few Americans think Obamacare is wrong headed. They may be correct. It certainly is complex. But lets not judge it wrong because it is complex. And similarly we shouldn't try to simplify it and judge it because the Supreme Court justified the mandated part of it by saying it was a tax. Before Obamacare, our health care system was extremely difficult to understand.
The issue is very important because it has to do with our health. Let's make an attempt to understand some of the many other interconnected parts. And if we can't understand it, then maybe that is a good reason to oppose it. In my life as a portfolio manager, I valued this advice, "If you don't understand it, don't buy it."
GO FORTH AND DO GOOD
Friday, June 8, 2012
The Danger of Happiness
Many of you know (and are probably tired of hearing) of my key to understanding life. That is, that life is wavy. I use the sine wave as the symbol of that key. The latest example of this waviness playing out is the results of the recall election of Wisconsin Governor, Scott Walker.
Surely, the public union employees were happy with their financial lot in life. And, when Scott Walker succeeded in engineering a small reduction in that happiness and then also took away the primary mechanism for gaining that happiness, it made them mad. When protests and the occupying of the Wisconsin Capital building did not restore their happiness, they decided to spend enormous amounts of money to recall the Governor.
It's hard to believe that those happy people could so fool themselves to not see the folly of their happiness. Once the recall was underway, those building the case against Governor Walker realized the pension and collective bargaining issue was a losing strategy. And, indeed, it was.
But this shouldn't be a surprise. Happiness is not a good teacher. I believe the derivation of the word happy comes from an ancient word that carries a meaning of something that "happens" to you, resulting in you being happy. "Good fortune" and "lucky" are also words carrying a similar meaning.
What is a good teacher is adversity. The famous British Prime Minister, Benjamin Disraeli said, "There is no education like adversity." A state of happiness can only result in disappointment. What people should strive for is moderation in all things and a balance in life. Contentment should be sought, not happiness. Let happiness happen, do not strive for it.
Wisconsin public employees have had their good fortune and now will face a period of adversity. I'm sure they will learn. Arizona public employees were smart enough to maintain a much more reasonable compensation and retirement regime and certainly will benefit on a relative basis.
My new book Turning North is now available as an e-book. The printed version will be available soon. The striving of Charlemagne and others during the "Dark Ages" is a lesson on what to do and not to do.
KEEP CALM and CARRY ON
Surely, the public union employees were happy with their financial lot in life. And, when Scott Walker succeeded in engineering a small reduction in that happiness and then also took away the primary mechanism for gaining that happiness, it made them mad. When protests and the occupying of the Wisconsin Capital building did not restore their happiness, they decided to spend enormous amounts of money to recall the Governor.
It's hard to believe that those happy people could so fool themselves to not see the folly of their happiness. Once the recall was underway, those building the case against Governor Walker realized the pension and collective bargaining issue was a losing strategy. And, indeed, it was.
But this shouldn't be a surprise. Happiness is not a good teacher. I believe the derivation of the word happy comes from an ancient word that carries a meaning of something that "happens" to you, resulting in you being happy. "Good fortune" and "lucky" are also words carrying a similar meaning.
What is a good teacher is adversity. The famous British Prime Minister, Benjamin Disraeli said, "There is no education like adversity." A state of happiness can only result in disappointment. What people should strive for is moderation in all things and a balance in life. Contentment should be sought, not happiness. Let happiness happen, do not strive for it.
Wisconsin public employees have had their good fortune and now will face a period of adversity. I'm sure they will learn. Arizona public employees were smart enough to maintain a much more reasonable compensation and retirement regime and certainly will benefit on a relative basis.
My new book Turning North is now available as an e-book. The printed version will be available soon. The striving of Charlemagne and others during the "Dark Ages" is a lesson on what to do and not to do.
KEEP CALM and CARRY ON
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
What are we Forgetting?
Benjamin Franklin left us with an abundant and memorable legacy. Among his many pithy sayings was this one; Creditors have better memories than debtors. It means that those who are lending money to us won't forget that they are doing so. Whereas, often, those who have obtained wherewithal through a loan, become forgetful of that service. It is why the bank will send us a notice when payment is due lest we forget. It is why vendors invoice us for a service provided. Just a little reminder that they haven't forgotten.
An economic and financial system such as we, in the modern world enjoy, is based on trust. Rarely do vendors (lenders) ask for payment up front. In the case of large loans, lenders will ask for collateral, but not always. The U.S. Government borrows from its citizens and foreigners every week without having to put up an iota of collateral. And these loans now run in the trillions of dollars. Most people have no idea where a bank gets funds to lend. It lends out the money of its customers who have checking and savings deposits with them. So, when your neighbor obtains a loan from your bank, remember it's your money that your neighbor is borrowing. Why have we forgotten about this fact? Because the government (FDIC) guarantees bank deposits (checking, savings and CDs) up to $250,000.
But, we do remember and become fearful when our bank has made too many bad loans. During the recent financial crises of 2008, depositors did line up to withdraw their money in some cases. But because the government was quick to reassure people that banks would not fail and created the TARP bailout, the country was able to avoid a disastrous "run" on the nation's commercial banks.
While the "crises" is over for now, people forget that the central problem continues. While banks have returned to a semblance of making responsible loans, our government continues to spend more than we take in, borrowing to make up the difference. Be assured that at some point our creditors will make demands. Where are we spending so much money? Mainly in two places; Social Security and The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). Fix these and the problem will gradually fade away. If we don't fix them, Social Security and health care will fade away (not so gradually).
Go Forth and Do Good
David J Winter
An economic and financial system such as we, in the modern world enjoy, is based on trust. Rarely do vendors (lenders) ask for payment up front. In the case of large loans, lenders will ask for collateral, but not always. The U.S. Government borrows from its citizens and foreigners every week without having to put up an iota of collateral. And these loans now run in the trillions of dollars. Most people have no idea where a bank gets funds to lend. It lends out the money of its customers who have checking and savings deposits with them. So, when your neighbor obtains a loan from your bank, remember it's your money that your neighbor is borrowing. Why have we forgotten about this fact? Because the government (FDIC) guarantees bank deposits (checking, savings and CDs) up to $250,000.
But, we do remember and become fearful when our bank has made too many bad loans. During the recent financial crises of 2008, depositors did line up to withdraw their money in some cases. But because the government was quick to reassure people that banks would not fail and created the TARP bailout, the country was able to avoid a disastrous "run" on the nation's commercial banks.
While the "crises" is over for now, people forget that the central problem continues. While banks have returned to a semblance of making responsible loans, our government continues to spend more than we take in, borrowing to make up the difference. Be assured that at some point our creditors will make demands. Where are we spending so much money? Mainly in two places; Social Security and The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). Fix these and the problem will gradually fade away. If we don't fix them, Social Security and health care will fade away (not so gradually).
Go Forth and Do Good
David J Winter
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Will the Stock Market Continue it's Advance?
One of my favorite sayings is, Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. That was said by the great physicist, Niels Bohr. Bohr won a Nobel Prize in 1922 for, among other things, his work in the field of Quantum Mechanics.
Another of my favorite quotes that relates specifically to the stock market is from Mark Twain. It goes like this, October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April,, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.
So now, after a really satisfying first quarter in stock market returns, the question arises, "Can it continue?" The answer, of course, is encapsulated in the above quotes. Nobody knows! What we do know is what is happening now. And that is that the trend at this time is up. For the S&P 500, the 50 day moving average is in a strong uptrend and the 200 day moving average is just beginning to turn in an upward direction. The numbers for the NASDAQ are even stronger. But can current trends tells us what will happen? Those of you who follow this blog and read my books know that I'm a believer that the sine wave is the most common mathematical symbol in nature and that certainly, the fluctuations in the stock market are a prime example of a sine wave in action.
My advice, if you have had the opportunity to be in stocks over the past few months, take a cautious attitude now. Maybe even take some profits. If you are now only considering stocks. That is, you are thinking about buying now, buy only sparingly, just a little bit. It would not be typical for the market to continue to advance the way it has in this first quarter, without a little breather. The economy is improving, but it is not strong. And, there are plenty of things that could go wrong in the next quarter or two.
Don't get carried away. Keep Calm and Carry On
Go Forth and Do Good
Another of my favorite quotes that relates specifically to the stock market is from Mark Twain. It goes like this, October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April,, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.
So now, after a really satisfying first quarter in stock market returns, the question arises, "Can it continue?" The answer, of course, is encapsulated in the above quotes. Nobody knows! What we do know is what is happening now. And that is that the trend at this time is up. For the S&P 500, the 50 day moving average is in a strong uptrend and the 200 day moving average is just beginning to turn in an upward direction. The numbers for the NASDAQ are even stronger. But can current trends tells us what will happen? Those of you who follow this blog and read my books know that I'm a believer that the sine wave is the most common mathematical symbol in nature and that certainly, the fluctuations in the stock market are a prime example of a sine wave in action.
My advice, if you have had the opportunity to be in stocks over the past few months, take a cautious attitude now. Maybe even take some profits. If you are now only considering stocks. That is, you are thinking about buying now, buy only sparingly, just a little bit. It would not be typical for the market to continue to advance the way it has in this first quarter, without a little breather. The economy is improving, but it is not strong. And, there are plenty of things that could go wrong in the next quarter or two.
Don't get carried away. Keep Calm and Carry On
Go Forth and Do Good
Thursday, March 1, 2012
History Repeating Itself
As a author who writes about the relationship of Church and State and whose public speaking presentation is entitled "The Relevance of Antiquity to Today", I was struck by the recent controversy here in Arizona. The Arizona legislature has a bill (House bill 2473) which permits the teaching of the Bible as literature in Arizona schools.
My experience as a Bible teacher tells me its difficult enough to interpret the Bible among Presbyterians. A public school classroom could well be populated by kids whose family beliefs about the Bible can range from the most fundamentalist Baptist to the most liberal thinking Congregationalist let alone Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Agnostics and Atheists.
In my newest book, Turning North, which will be published in a few months, I tell the story of how Charlemagne went about converting Saxons by defeating them in battle and forcing them to be baptized, thus making them Christians. Will we ever learn? One is not a Christian because the call themselves a Christian, go to church and observe the religious rites and rituals. You are a Christian by what is in your "heart" and by the fruits of your behavior. In the Letter of James, we are told of some of those "fruits of the spirit." Do you try to be peaceable, gentle, reasonable, full of mercy and good fruits, unwavering, without hypocrisy? If you are really trying to exhibit these characteristics and believe in Jesus, then you are probably a Christian.
The Arizona House bill 2473 is not an attempt to convert people, but only to familiarize kids with an important book that contains a lot of good stuff. But, can you imagine the minefield this creates? I'm a Christian and believe scripture is my path to salvation. When the State gets involved with the Bible, no good can come of it. I hope the bill goes down in defeat.
GO FORTH AND DO GOOD
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Economic Apples and Oranges
It was funny and sad to hear a cable television "talking head" become concerned over what she (or her news writers) thought was a conflict. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) at a recent Congressional hearing forecast a grim economic outlook. She wish to compare that to a speech by the President that painted an improving picture for the economy. Ladies and gentlemen, the president was speaking about what has occurred. The CBO was talking about what might occur.
A forecast is a guess. History is...well, history. John Kenneth Galbraith, the Harvard economic professor and prolific author said, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. Then there is one of my favorite passages from The Letter of James in the New Testament. The passage is 4: 13-15. Look it up. We cannot know what our life will be like tomorrow because we cannot know the future. We can and should plan for the future and forecasts can help in that process. But understand that making a plan and changing our behaviors to carry out a plan will likely thwart the forecast.
The economy is improving, but at a slow pace. Its not growing fast enough to get us out of the mess we are in. Another way to say it is that the economy has improved from bad to not quite as bad. If we look at it that way, the CBO's forecast is similar to the recent past. Hopefully, the CBO will alter the behavior of Congress and changes can be made that will thwart that forecast and truly improve the future economy. One guarantee is that things will change. Keep calm and carry on.
Go Forth and Do Good
A forecast is a guess. History is...well, history. John Kenneth Galbraith, the Harvard economic professor and prolific author said, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. Then there is one of my favorite passages from The Letter of James in the New Testament. The passage is 4: 13-15. Look it up. We cannot know what our life will be like tomorrow because we cannot know the future. We can and should plan for the future and forecasts can help in that process. But understand that making a plan and changing our behaviors to carry out a plan will likely thwart the forecast.
The economy is improving, but at a slow pace. Its not growing fast enough to get us out of the mess we are in. Another way to say it is that the economy has improved from bad to not quite as bad. If we look at it that way, the CBO's forecast is similar to the recent past. Hopefully, the CBO will alter the behavior of Congress and changes can be made that will thwart that forecast and truly improve the future economy. One guarantee is that things will change. Keep calm and carry on.
Go Forth and Do Good
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
A Hard Year Ahead?
The new year is usually a time for optimism. The stock market is up strongly this morning. Still, upon reflection the outlook according to the news media seems gloomy. My new book, Turning North, takes place during the "Dark Ages" when people were mostly illiterate and the future was always going to be just the same as yesterday. If you lived in what is today Europe, you were always concerned about your physical safety. There was no such thing as a police force in those days. "Hope" was the only thing that people could latch onto and was one of the reasons for Christianity's popularity in those days.
In modern times we have become used to progress, ever increasing standards of living, and the easy life. As a result of this confidence, companies, individuals and governments have become over in-debted and now, we face a future in which we are unable to lever up our prospects. The outlook is not only glum, but the choices we face all seem too hard. Indeed, many are concerned, just as in the "Dark Ages", for our personal security. Not because of the potential from a criminal act, but for our well-being for us and our family.
Yet, hope remains alive. Groucho Marx said, It isn't so much that hard times are coming; the change observed is mostly soft times going. And for those believers, Christian Scripture promises in Proverbs 24; 19-20 that fretting about those who may do evil to us is a waste of time because there is no future for the evil man. The way to approach the future is to imitate the Apostle Paul who said in Philippians 3; 13-14,Brethren, I do not regard myself as having laid hold of it yet; but one thing I do: forgetting what lies behind and reaching to what lies ahead, I press on toward the goal for the prize of the upward call of God in Christ Jesus.
My advice: keep calm and carry on.
Go Forth and Do Good
In modern times we have become used to progress, ever increasing standards of living, and the easy life. As a result of this confidence, companies, individuals and governments have become over in-debted and now, we face a future in which we are unable to lever up our prospects. The outlook is not only glum, but the choices we face all seem too hard. Indeed, many are concerned, just as in the "Dark Ages", for our personal security. Not because of the potential from a criminal act, but for our well-being for us and our family.
Yet, hope remains alive. Groucho Marx said, It isn't so much that hard times are coming; the change observed is mostly soft times going. And for those believers, Christian Scripture promises in Proverbs 24; 19-20 that fretting about those who may do evil to us is a waste of time because there is no future for the evil man. The way to approach the future is to imitate the Apostle Paul who said in Philippians 3; 13-14,Brethren, I do not regard myself as having laid hold of it yet; but one thing I do: forgetting what lies behind and reaching to what lies ahead, I press on toward the goal for the prize of the upward call of God in Christ Jesus.
My advice: keep calm and carry on.
Go Forth and Do Good
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