More Skills Needed

According to Vice President Joe Biden, this coming election boils down to that three letter word; JOBS! As funny as the Vice President has been, I think almost everyone would agree that the VP is correct except for his ability to count.

As I've blogged before, the answer to solving the JOBS problem lies in creating a faster growth in the economy. Barring that, the existential solution for those seeking a job is to acquire a greater skill set. The data clearly shows that the more education one has, the greater the opportunity for employment. According to the EPI analysis of the monthly Current Population Survey, the unemployment rate for those without a high school diploma is 17.8%, those with some college, 8.6%, and those with a college degree, 5.2%. It's a sliding scale. Those having an advanced degree have an unemployment rate of 3.3%. The Atlantic is quoted as saying that "These days. it seems we're really in a grad school economy." A good part of this problem simply relates to the continued progress of technology which requires higher and more specialized skills.

However, there is another way for people to acquire skills and that is through experience. One might say, going back to school takes long enough, gaining experience requires, not only a job to begin with, but an even greater length of time. That's true, but the problem is that those "Boomers" who we have been waiting to retire are not doing so and they are the ones who have acquired the specialized skills. The data from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) indicates that since the end of the recession, the total number of civilian jobs have grown by less that 3 million, all of which have been gained by those in the 55 year and older category. The "Boomers" are not making room for the younger generation. The "Millennials," those who are now in the, say, 8 to 30 year old bracket is a larger cohort than the "Boomers."

What point am I trying to make? I've listened to almost every speech at the Republican Convention. Virtually all the speeches are directed toward the younger generation in some sense. Yes, most of these Millennials are still ineligible to vote due to their youth, but they are enough of a swing vote to tilt toward the Republicans who seem to be making a "realistic" case appealing to the pragmatic "Millennials" instead of an "idealistic" case which is so characteristic of "Boomers." Lets see who the Democrats talk to in the coming week.  Four years ago, the youngsters mostly voted for the President. If the Republicans can reverse that vote, they could place Mr. Romney in the Presidency. And in this blogger's view that would be a very good thing.

Parents of the "Millennial" generation are noted for  being obsessed with the welfare of their children. Enough said.

GO FORTH and DO GOOD

The Galciers are Disappearing!

On a personal note, Mary Ann and I have just returned from one of the most beautiful places on earth, Glacier National Park.The wildlife was quite abundant. We saw black bears, moose, deer, mountain goats, bald eagles, osprey and those cute little mountain squirrels. We also hiked to glacial lakes and waterfalls so numerous that most of them had no names. The rivers and creeks were clear and swift and the cool weather was a major respite for us Arizonans in August. Mainly, we witnessed the most beautiful vistas created by mother nature using a carving tool so vast that it literally escapes the ability of the mind to understand.

I'm speaking about glaciers. Our guides would say that the Park is mis-named and should be called Glaciated National Park, because the 22 or 23 glaciers that still exist are small and receding and are expected to be completely gone in about 20 years. Yes, that is potentially in our lifetime.

When you question the guides as I do; (i.e., as an annoying analyst) one tends to get a little different perspective. Here is what I found. The beautiful vistas of the Park were carved by massive glaciers, but not by any of the glaciers that currently still exist in the Park. The glaciers that made the Park what it is today existed 10,000 years ago during the last Ice Age and have long ago completely melted. Approximately 700 years ago there occurred a "mini ice age" that resulted in the glaciers in Glacier National Park that existed when the area was first seen by Americans and are now receding.

I am a believer in global warming. In fact, I believe Earth is continually in a state of warming or cooling and has been for hundreds of millions of years. I find those who attribute "climate change" to human activity arrogant and shallow. Human progress has been impressive and often has been damaging to the environment, but to raise human activity to a level high enough to compete with mother nature would be laughable if those that do so weren't so serious about it. My advice, go visit Glacier National Park.

Keep Calm and Carry On